Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for BIT:ILP using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
BIT:ILP DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
ILPRA's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a moderate discount (< 20%).
ILPRA's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
ILPRA's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Unable to determine if ILPRA is high growth as no earnings estimate data is available.
ILPRA's revenue is expected to grow by 9.5% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
ILPRA's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
1/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A Look At The Fair Value Of ILPRA S.p.A. (BIT:ILP)
(BIT:ILP) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. … Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Levered FCF (€, Millions) €-0.27 €2.98 €3.87 €3.80 €3.79 €3.81 €3.86 €3.94 €4.02 €4.12 Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Est @ -0.31% Est @ 0.66% Est @ 1.35% Est @ 1.82% Est @ 2.16% Est @ 2.39% Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 13.87% €-0.23 €2.29 €2.62 €2.26 €1.98 €1.75 €1.56 €1.39 €1.25 €1.12 Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= €15.99m "Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. … Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €4.1m × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (13.9% – 2.9%) = €39m Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = €€39m ÷ ( 1 + 13.9%)10 = €10.57m The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €26.55m.
How Much Of ILPRA S.p.A. (BIT:ILP) Do Insiders Own?
As Nassim Nicholas Taleb said, 'Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.' ILPRA is not a large company by global standards. … View our latest analysis for ILPRA BIT:ILP Ownership Summary, May 14th 2019 What Does The Lack Of Institutional Ownership Tell Us About ILPRA? … Insider Ownership Of ILPRA The definition of company insiders can be subjective, and does vary between jurisdictions.
ILPRA S.p.A. designs, produces, and sells packaging machines worldwide. It offers tray sealers, fillers and sealers, thermoformers, and buckets fillers. The company’s products are used in the packaging of food products, such as meat and poultry, fish and seafood, milk and dairy products, agricultural products, water and drinks, cold cuts and cured meat, sauces and dippings, sweets and desserts, bread and bakery products, fresh pasta, pet food, ready meals, and preserves; non food products, including stationery, electronic components, mechanical components, chemical products, household articles, and perfumes and cosmetics; and medical devices, disposable and injectable products, pharmaceutical products, and medical instruments. It also provides personalized consultancy, training course, service and maintenance, revamping and retrofitting, and showroom and testing room services, as well as spare parts and used machines. The company was founded in 1955 and is based in Mortara, Italy.
Simply Wall Street Pty Ltd (ACN 600 056 611), is a Corporate Authorised Representative (Authorised Representative Number: 467183) of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 337927). Any advice contained in this website is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this website and before making any investment decision we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice. Please read our Financial Services Guide before deciding whether to obtain financial services from us.