Earnings growth outpaced the notable 70% return delivered to BPER Banca (BIT:BPE) shareholders over the last year
Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. To wit, the BPER Banca SpA (BIT:BPE) share price is 64% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market decline of around 21% (not including dividends) in the same period. If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! Having said that, the longer term returns aren't so impressive, with stock gaining just 25% in three years.
On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.
View our latest analysis for BPER Banca
SWOT Analysis for BPER Banca
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Dividends are currently covered by earnings and forecast to be covered by earnings in 3 years.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Banks market.
- Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the Italian market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
- Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
BPER Banca was able to grow EPS by 176% in the last twelve months. It's fair to say that the share price gain of 64% did not keep pace with the EPS growth. So it seems like the market has cooled on BPER Banca, despite the growth. Interesting. The caution is also evident in the lowish P/E ratio of 2.61.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that BPER Banca has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for BPER Banca the TSR over the last 1 year was 70%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that BPER Banca has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 70% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 1.3% per year over five years. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with BPER Banca (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Italian exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if BPER Banca might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BIT:BPE
BPER Banca
Provides banking products and services for individuals, and businesses and professionals in Italy and internationally.
Undervalued with adequate balance sheet and pays a dividend.
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