Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BIT:BMPS) - Share price, News & Analysis

BMPS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

BMPS Stock Overview

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. provides retail and commercial banking services primarily in Italy.

Rewards

PE ratio (3.5x) is below the Italian market (17.3x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 16.99% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena Competitors

Intesa Sanpaolo

BIT:ISP

€38.5b

UniCredit

BIT:UCG

€21.7b

FinecoBank Banca Fineco

BIT:FBK

€7.7b

Banco BPM

BIT:BAMI

€4.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€0.71
52 Week High	€1.31
52 Week Low	€0.68
Beta	1.28
1 Month Change	-19.33%
3 Month Change	-24.92%
1 Year Change	-41.69%
3 Year Change	-36.38%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-100.00%

Shareholder Returns

	BMPS	IT Banks	IT Market
7D	0.4%	0.5%	0.7%
1Y	-41.7%	-9.8%	-5.5%

Return vs Industry: BMPS underperformed the Italian Banks industry which returned -9.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BMPS underperformed the Italian Market which returned -5.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BMPS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BMPS volatility
BMPS Average Weekly Movement	6.6%
Banks Industry Average Movement	6.6%
Market Average Movement	6.2%
10% most volatile stocks in IT Market	8.6%
10% least volatile stocks in IT Market	4.0%

Stable Share Price: BMPS is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Italian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BMPS's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1472	21,244	Luigi Lovaglio	https://www.gruppomps.it

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. provides retail and commercial banking services primarily in Italy. The company operates through Retail Banking, Corporate Banking, and Wealth Management segments. It offers funding and lending services, insurance products, financial advisory, and electronic payment services; financial and non-financial services; wealth management and financial planning services; consultancy services, such as tax planning, real estate, art, and legal advisory; fiduciary and trust services; and digital banking services.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena Fundamentals Summary

How do Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BMPS fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€707.20m
Earnings (TTM)	€200.51m
Revenue (TTM)	€2.71b

3.5x

P/E Ratio

0.1x

P/B Ratio

Is BMPS overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BMPS income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€2.71b
Cost of Revenue	€38.23m
Gross Profit	€2.68b
Other Expenses	€2.48b
Earnings	€200.51m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 04, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.20
Gross Margin	98.59%
Net Profit Margin	7.39%
Debt/Equity Ratio	172.1%

How did BMPS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

3.53x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: BMPS (€0.71) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€0.46)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BMPS is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: BMPS is good value based on its PE Ratio (3.5x) compared to the Italian Banks industry average (8.3x).

PE vs Market: BMPS is good value based on its PE Ratio (3.5x) compared to the Italian market (17.3x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: BMPS is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.2x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: BMPS is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.1x) compared to the IT Banks industry average (0.5x).

Future Growth

How is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

17.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BMPS's forecast earnings growth (17% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: BMPS's earnings (17% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Italian market (9.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BMPS's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BMPS's revenue (2.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Italian market (-0.03% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BMPS's revenue (2.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BMPS's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (2.5%).

Past Performance

How has Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

46.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BMPS has a large one-off loss of €197.6M impacting its March 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: BMPS became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BMPS has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 46.5% per year.

Accelerating Growth: BMPS has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: BMPS has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Banks industry (35.8%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: BMPS's Return on Equity (3.3%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: BMPS's Assets to Equity ratio (22x) is very high.

Allowance for Bad Loans: BMPS has a low allowance for bad loans (59%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 83% of BMPS's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: BMPS has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (71%).

Low Risk Deposits: BMPS's Loans to Deposits ratio (89%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: BMPS has a high level of bad loans (4.4%).

Dividend

What is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BMPS's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BMPS's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BMPS's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BMPS's dividend payments have been increasing.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: BMPS is not paying a notable dividend for the Italian market.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of BMPS's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the Italian market.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Luigi Lovaglio (66 yo)

0.25

Tenure

Mr. Luigi Lovaglio has been Chief Executive Officer, General Manager and Director of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. since February 04, 2022. Mr. Lovaglio had been a Director at Credito Valtellinese...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BMPS's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: BMPS's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 3.8%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/21 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/20 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31