Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.

BIT:BMPS Stock Report

Market Cap: €7.5b

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena Valuation

Is BMPS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BMPS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BMPS (€5.93) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€14.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BMPS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BMPS?

Key metric: As BMPS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BMPS. This is calculated by dividing BMPS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BMPS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio2.8x
Earnings€2.69b
Market Cap€7.47b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BMPS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BMPS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.4x
FBK FinecoBank Banca Fineco
13.9x-1.3%€9.0b
BAMI Banco BPM
5x-13.7%€10.0b
MB Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario
9.3x4.0%€11.6b
BPE BPER Banca
5.3x-5.3%€8.3b
BMPS Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena
2.8x-22.7%€7.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BMPS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.8x) compared to the peer average (8.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BMPS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BMPS 2.8xIndustry Avg. 7.4xNo. of Companies46PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BMPS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.8x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BMPS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BMPS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio2.8x
Fair PE Ratio5.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BMPS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BMPS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€5.93
€6.82
+15.0%
8.5%€7.83€6.00n/a10
Nov ’25€5.11
€6.50
+27.2%
5.7%€7.30€6.00n/a9
Oct ’25€5.00
€6.48
+29.6%
7.1%€7.30€5.90n/a8
Sep ’25€5.26
€6.48
+23.2%
7.1%€7.30€5.90n/a8
Aug ’25€4.70
€6.07
+29.2%
7.1%€6.60€5.30n/a8
Jul ’25€4.68
€5.75
+22.8%
10.3%€6.60€5.00n/a8
Jun ’25€4.94
€5.56
+12.5%
9.5%€6.50€5.00n/a8
May ’25€4.55
€5.00
+9.8%
11.8%€5.70€4.00n/a8
Apr ’25€4.20
€4.69
+11.5%
14.0%€5.70€4.00n/a8
Mar ’25€3.87
€4.48
+15.8%
12.5%€5.70€4.00n/a8
Feb ’25€3.16
€3.84
+21.6%
7.9%€4.40€3.50n/a6
Jan ’25€3.05
€3.77
+23.6%
8.7%€4.40€3.40n/a6
Dec ’24€3.14
€3.72
+18.3%
6.5%€4.10€3.40n/a6
Nov ’24€2.59
€3.34
+29.0%
7.7%€3.71€3.00€5.116
Oct ’24€2.42
€3.20
+32.5%
5.9%€3.50€3.00€5.005
Sep ’24€2.54
€3.10
+22.3%
11.0%€3.50€2.50€5.265
Aug ’24€2.54
€2.89
+14.1%
8.1%€3.20€2.50€4.705
Jul ’24€2.30
€2.20
-4.6%
50.5%€3.00€0€4.685
Jun ’24€2.16
€2.20
+1.7%
50.5%€3.00€0€4.945
May ’24€2.09
€2.15
+3.0%
51.1%€3.00€0€4.555
Apr ’24€2.01
€2.03
+1.3%
52.5%€3.00€0€4.205
Mar ’24€2.47
€2.03
-17.6%
52.5%€3.00€0€3.875
Feb ’24€2.46
€1.94
-21.3%
52.8%€3.00€0€3.165
Jan ’24€1.92
€11.34
+489.1%
146.3%€40.00€0€3.054
Dec ’23€1.89
€11.34
+500.0%
146.3%€40.00€0€3.144
Nov ’23€2.00
€14.33
+615.8%
126.9%€40.00€0€2.593

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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