CESC (NSEI:CESC) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of CESC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CESC (₹78.9) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (₹268.9)

CESC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	1/6
Dividends	6/6

CESC Stock Overview

CESC Limited, an integrated electrical utility company, engages in the generation and distribution of electricity in India.

Rewards

Trading at 70.7% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 9.29% per year

Pays a high and reliable dividend of 5.7%

Trading at good value vs. peer average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading at good value vs. industry average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading below our calculated fair Price-To-Earnings ratio

Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 33.8%

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

CESC Competitors

SJVN

NSEI:SJVN

₹130.1b

India Grid Trust

BSE:540565

₹100.9b

Torrent Power

NSEI:TORNTPOWER

₹241.7b

India Power

NSEI:DPSCLTD

₹12.9b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for CESC
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	₹78.90
52 Week High	₹102.45
52 Week Low	₹68.00
Beta	1.02
1 Month Change	-1.38%
3 Month Change	9.36%
1 Year Change	-15.16%
3 Year Change	7.93%
5 Year Change	-25.33%
Change since IPO	268.69%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 31

Is CESC Limited (NSE:CESC) Potentially Undervalued?

CESC Limited ( NSE:CESC ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10...

Shareholder Returns

	CESC	IN Electric Utilities	IN Market
7D	2.6%	-8.8%	-0.6%
1Y	-15.2%	44.9%	-3.0%

Return vs Industry: CESC underperformed the Indian Electric Utilities industry which returned 44.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CESC underperformed the Indian Market which returned -3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CESC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CESC volatility
CESC Average Weekly Movement	3.3%
Electric Utilities Industry Average Movement	3.9%
Market Average Movement	5.9%
10% most volatile stocks in IN Market	9.2%
10% least volatile stocks in IN Market	3.8%

Stable Share Price: CESC is less volatile than 75% of Indian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CESC's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1899	6,920	n/a	https://www.cesc.co.in

CESC Limited, an integrated electrical utility company, engages in the generation and distribution of electricity in India. It owns and operates three thermal power plants, including Budge Budge, Southern, and Titagarh generating stations generating 1125 megawatts (MW) of power; a thermal power project with a capacity of 600 MW in Haldia, West Bengal; two thermal power projects with a capacity of 600 MW in Chandrapur, Maharashtra and 40 MW atmospheric fluidized bed combustion power plant in Asansol, West Bengal; and transmission and distribution network of 23468 circuit kms, and distributes power in Uttar Pradesh with license area of 335 square kilometers. The company also owns and operates solar power project with a capacity of 18 MW data center in Ramanathapuram, Tamil Nadu.

CESC Fundamentals Summary

How do CESC's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CESC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	₹104.59b
Earnings (TTM)	₹13.73b
Revenue (TTM)	₹134.30b

7.6x

P/E Ratio

0.8x

P/S Ratio

Is CESC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CESC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	₹134.30b
Cost of Revenue	₹81.35b
Gross Profit	₹52.95b
Other Expenses	₹39.22b
Earnings	₹13.73b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Nov 14, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	10.36
Gross Margin	39.42%
Net Profit Margin	10.22%
Debt/Equity Ratio	138.1%

How did CESC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.7%

Current Dividend Yield

43%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is CESC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CESC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for CESC. This is calculated by dividing CESC's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is CESC's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	₹104.59b

CESC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7.8x
PEG Ratio	0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CESC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

CESC PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for CESC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	38.4x
SJVN SJVN	10.3x	5.4%	₹130.1b
540565 India Grid Trust	29.3x	12.8%	₹100.9b
TORNTPOWER Torrent Power	32.3x	28.8%	₹241.7b
DPSCLTD India Power	84.6x	n/a	₹12.9b
CESC CESC	7.6x	9.3%	₹104.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CESC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the peer average (38.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CESC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Electric Utilities Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CESC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the Asian Electric Utilities industry average (13.4x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CESC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CESC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.6x
Fair PE Ratio	14.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CESC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CESC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CESC (₹78.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (₹268.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CESC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is CESC forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

9.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CESC's forecast earnings growth (9.3% per year) is above the savings rate (6.8%).

Earnings vs Market: CESC's earnings (9.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Indian market (18.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CESC's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CESC's revenue (3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Indian market (10.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CESC's revenue (3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CESC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.4%).

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Past Performance

How has CESC performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

7.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CESC has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: CESC's current net profit margins (10.2%) are lower than last year (11.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CESC's earnings have grown by 7.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CESC's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: CESC had negative earnings growth (-1.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Electric Utilities industry average (-16.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: CESC's Return on Equity (13.1%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is CESC's financial position?

Financial Health Score

1/6

Financial Health Score 1/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CESC's short term assets (₹71.5B) do not cover its short term liabilities (₹88.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: CESC's short term assets (₹71.5B) do not cover its long term liabilities (₹178.3B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CESC's net debt to equity ratio (106.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: CESC's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 139.8% to 138.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CESC's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (16.7%).

Interest Coverage: CESC's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.9x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is CESC current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

6/6

Dividend Score 6/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

5.70%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

CESC Dividend Yield vs Market

How does CESC dividend yield compare to the market?
Segment	Dividend Yield
Company (CESC)	5.7%
Market Bottom 25% (IN)	0.4%
Market Top 25% (IN)	1.6%
Industry Average (Electric Utilities)	4.2%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (CESC)	6.4%

Notable Dividend: CESC's dividend (5.7%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Indian market (0.36%).

High Dividend: CESC's dividend (5.7%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Indian market (1.63%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: CESC's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: CESC's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (43.4%), CESC's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (34.7%), CESC's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.4yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

CESC has no CEO, or we have no data on them.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CESC's management team is considered experienced (4.4 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: CESC's board of directors are considered experienced (6.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of CESC?
Owner Type	Number of Shares	Ownership Percentage
State or Government	2,497,286	0.2%
Individual Insiders	2,844,500	0.2%
Public Companies	41,796,680	3.2%
General Public	202,182,824	15.3%
Institutions	455,905,970	34.4%
Private Companies	620,343,170	46.8%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 83.73% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
44.36%	Rainbow Investments Limited	587,966,320	₹46.4b	0%	no data
6.51%	HDFC Asset Management Company Limited	86,305,978	₹6.8b	-6.43%	0.2%
3.82%	Life Insurance Corporation of India, Asset Management Arm	50,590,108	₹4.0b	6.98%	0.04%
3.8%	SBI Funds Management Limited	50,430,126	₹4.0b	288.58%	0.09%
3.04%	ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited	40,362,078	₹3.2b	0.67%	0.1%
2.35%	UTI Asset Management Company Limited	31,130,015	₹2.5b	14.01%	0.16%
2.34%	Massachusetts Financial Services Company	30,954,810	₹2.4b	0%	0.01%
2.19%	Quest Capital Markets Limited, Asset Management Arm	29,025,140	₹2.3b	0%	32.29%
2.01%	Nippon Life India Asset Management Limited	26,707,830	₹2.1b	0%	0.12%
1.89%	The Vanguard Group, Inc.	25,029,047	₹2.0b	1.67%	no data
1.88%	STEL Holdings Limited	24,934,700	₹2.0b	0%	no data
1.27%	PCBL Limited	16,861,980	₹1.3b	0%	no data
1.24%	Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Limited	16,392,588	₹1.3b	-0.03%	0.11%
1.17%	Composure Services Private Limited	15,449,880	₹1.2b	0%	no data
1.03%	DSP Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd.	13,624,319	₹1.1b	0%	0.15%
0.81%	Integrated Coal Mining Limited	10,753,640	₹848.5m	0%	no data
0.8%	BlackRock, Inc.	10,639,116	₹839.4m	0.61%	no data
0.76%	BNY Mellon Asset Management	10,011,485	₹789.9m	2%	no data
0.67%	Fidelity International Ltd	8,933,948	₹704.9m	0%	no data
0.55%	Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	7,257,799	₹572.6m	0.21%	no data
0.47%	Tata Asset Management Limited	6,201,408	₹489.3m	-17.8%	0.1%
0.28%	BEARAY PTY LTD	3,650,000	₹288.0m	0%	no data
0.19%	Castor Investments Ltd	2,500,000	₹197.3m	0%	no data
0.18%	Investor Education and Protection Fund (IEPF)	2,321,440	₹183.2m	0%	no data
0.14%	Acadian Asset Management LLC	1,881,168	₹148.4m	0.12%	0.01%

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
500084	BSE (Mumbai Stock Exchange)	Yes	Equity Shares	IN	INR	Mar 1994
CESC	NSEI (National Stock Exchange of India)	Yes	Equity Shares	IN	INR	Mar 1994

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/10/04 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/10/04 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2022/03/31