Black Box Limited's (NSE:BBOX) 25% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Black Box Limited (NSE:BBOX) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 25% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Still, a bad month hasn't completely ruined the past year with the stock gaining 80%, which is great even in a bull market.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, Black Box's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 49.3x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 28x and even P/E's below 16x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

With earnings growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Black Box has been doing very well. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Black Box

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Black Box will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Black Box's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 95% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 97% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

It's interesting to note that the rest of the market is similarly expected to grow by 25% over the next year, which is fairly even with the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's curious that Black Box's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Although, additional gains will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends would weigh down the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Black Box's shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Black Box revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted, given they look similar to current market expectations. Right now we are uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Having said that, be aware Black Box is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Black Box. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.