Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Oberoi Realty Limited (NSE:OBEROIRLTY) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Oberoi Realty
What Is Oberoi Realty's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Oberoi Realty had ₹13.9b of debt in September 2020, down from ₹20.2b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹4.06b, its net debt is less, at about ₹9.83b.
How Healthy Is Oberoi Realty's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Oberoi Realty had liabilities of ₹25.1b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹1.88b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹4.06b as well as receivables valued at ₹4.62b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total ₹18.3b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given Oberoi Realty has a market capitalization of ₹202.7b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Oberoi Realty has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.98. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 25.7 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. And we also note warmly that Oberoi Realty grew its EBIT by 13% last year, making its debt load easier to handle. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Oberoi Realty's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Oberoi Realty actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.
Our View
On our analysis Oberoi Realty's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. In particular, conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gives us cold feet. Considering this range of data points, we think Oberoi Realty is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you're interested in Oberoi Realty, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About NSEI:OBEROIRLTY
Oberoi Realty
Engages in real estate development and hospitality businesses in India.
Excellent balance sheet with reasonable growth potential and pays a dividend.
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