Nesco's (NSE:NESCO) Profits May Not Reveal Underlying Issues

Nesco Limited's (NSE:NESCO) robust recent earnings didn't do much to move the stock. We believe that shareholders have noticed some concerning factors beyond the statutory profit numbers.

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Zooming In On Nesco's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to March 2025, Nesco recorded an accrual ratio of 0.37. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of ₹4.3b, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of ₹3.75b. We saw that FCF was ₹2.7b a year ago though, so Nesco has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Nesco's Profit Performance

As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that Nesco didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. For this reason, we think that Nesco's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But the good news is that its EPS growth over the last three years has been very impressive. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. If you want to do dive deeper into Nesco, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Nesco (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Nesco's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.