Earnings Miss: UltraTech Cement Limited Missed EPS By 15% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that UltraTech Cement Limited (NSE:ULTRACEMCO) filed its half-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to ₹10,753 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of ₹337b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 15% to hit ₹28.43 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for UltraTech Cement

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from UltraTech Cement's 35 analysts is for revenues of ₹745.2b in 2025. This would reflect a credible 5.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 6.8% to ₹243. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹762.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹274 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹11,849 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic UltraTech Cement analyst has a price target of ₹13,620 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹6,900. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that UltraTech Cement's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 4.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that UltraTech Cement is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates that is expected to perform better than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple UltraTech Cement analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that UltraTech Cement is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.