APL Apollo Tubes Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

APL Apollo Tubes Limited (NSE:APLAPOLLO) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of ₹50b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 13% to hit ₹6.96 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for APL Apollo Tubes

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from APL Apollo Tubes' 14 analysts is for revenues of ₹218.3b in 2025. This reflects a decent 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 24% to ₹32.58. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹223.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹36.73 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 6.6% to ₹1,652, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic APL Apollo Tubes analyst has a price target of ₹1,880 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹1,162. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of APL Apollo Tubes'historical trends, as the 24% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 22% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 11% per year. So it's pretty clear that APL Apollo Tubes is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for APL Apollo Tubes. They also downgraded APL Apollo Tubes' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on APL Apollo Tubes. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for APL Apollo Tubes going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for APL Apollo Tubes that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.