Investors in Godfrey Phillips India (NSE:GODFRYPHLP) have seen enviable returns of 906% over the past five years
We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. And highest quality companies can see their share prices grow by huge amounts. For example, the Godfrey Phillips India Limited (NSE:GODFRYPHLP) share price is up a whopping 826% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will. It's also good to see the share price up 68% over the last quarter. Anyone who held for that rewarding ride would probably be keen to talk about it.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, Godfrey Phillips India achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 21% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 56% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It is of course excellent to see how Godfrey Phillips India has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. This free interactive report on Godfrey Phillips India's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Godfrey Phillips India the TSR over the last 5 years was 906%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Godfrey Phillips India has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 164% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 59%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Godfrey Phillips India better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Godfrey Phillips India (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.