Earnings Beat: Adani Wilmar Limited Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Adani Wilmar Limited (NSE:AWL) last week reported its latest yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues were ₹516b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of ₹1.14 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 16%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Adani Wilmar

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Adani Wilmar's four analysts is for revenues of ₹554.0b in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 7.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 485% to ₹6.66. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹569.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹6.76 in 2025. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The average price target was steady at ₹382even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Adani Wilmar analyst has a price target of ₹455 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹325. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Adani Wilmar's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Adani Wilmar.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings per share are more important to value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target held steady at ₹382, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Adani Wilmar analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Adani Wilmar that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.