Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk'. So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Piramal Enterprises Limited (NSE:PEL) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Piramal Enterprises Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Piramal Enterprises had debt of ₹423.3b at the end of March 2020, a reduction from ₹560.2b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₹88.4b, its net debt is less, at about ₹334.9b.
How Healthy Is Piramal Enterprises's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Piramal Enterprises had liabilities of ₹236.7b falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₹206.6b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹88.4b and ₹54.0b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling ₹301.0b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of ₹319.5b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Piramal Enterprises's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
While we wouldn't worry about Piramal Enterprises's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.0, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.4 times is a sign of high leverage. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. The good news is that Piramal Enterprises improved its EBIT by 9.3% over the last twelve months, thus gradually reducing its debt levels relative to its earnings. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Piramal Enterprises can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Piramal Enterprises saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Piramal Enterprises's interest cover and its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that Piramal Enterprises's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Piramal Enterprises you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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