Touchwood Entertainment Limited (NSE:TOUCHWOOD) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 25% Price Plummet

Touchwood Entertainment Limited (NSE:TOUCHWOOD) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 25% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 37% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, Touchwood Entertainment may still be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 39.5x, since almost half of all companies in India have P/E ratios under 28x and even P/E's lower than 16x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Earnings have risen firmly for Touchwood Entertainment recently, which is pleasing to see. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Touchwood Entertainment

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Touchwood Entertainment, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Touchwood Entertainment would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 25% gain to the company's bottom line. EPS has also lifted 8.7% in aggregate from three years ago, mostly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been respectable for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 26% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that Touchwood Entertainment is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Touchwood Entertainment's P/E?

There's still some solid strength behind Touchwood Entertainment's P/E, if not its share price lately. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Touchwood Entertainment revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Touchwood Entertainment that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.