Thermax Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Thermax Limited (NSE:THERMAX) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at ₹22b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 16%, coming in at just ₹10.28 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Thermax

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Thermax from 19 analysts is for revenues of ₹107.6b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be ₹61.70, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹108.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹65.26 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at ₹4,027, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Thermax analyst has a price target of ₹5,480 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹1,780. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Thermax's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 17% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 12% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Thermax is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹4,027, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Thermax going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Thermax's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com