Should Weakness in Thermax Limited's (NSE:THERMAX) Stock Be Seen As A Sign That Market Will Correct The Share Price Given Decent Financials?

Thermax (NSE:THERMAX) has had a rough three months with its share price down 15%. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. In this article, we decided to focus on Thermax's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

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How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Thermax is:

14% = ₹6.7b ÷ ₹49b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2025).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every ₹1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn ₹0.14 in profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Thermax

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Thermax's Earnings Growth And 14% ROE

When you first look at it, Thermax's ROE doesn't look that attractive. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 14%, we may spare it some thought. Moreover, we are quite pleased to see that Thermax's net income grew significantly at a rate of 29% over the last five years. Taking into consideration that the ROE is not particularly high, we reckon that there could also be other factors at play which could be influencing the company's growth. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

We then performed a comparison between Thermax's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 27% in the same 5-year period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Thermax is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Thermax Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

Thermax has a really low three-year median payout ratio of 25%, meaning that it has the remaining 75% left over to reinvest into its business. So it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business and this reflects in its earnings growth number.

Moreover, Thermax is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 19% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 17%, over the same period.

Summary

In total, it does look like Thermax has some positive aspects to its business. With a high rate of reinvestment, albeit at a low ROE, the company has managed to see a considerable growth in its earnings. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.