Results: Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

The first-quarter results for Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited (NSE:APTUS) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Aptus Value Housing Finance India missed revenue estimates by 8.0%, with sales of ₹1.9b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of ₹2.38 beat expectations, coming in 8.2% ahead of analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Aptus Value Housing Finance India

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Aptus Value Housing Finance India from seven analysts is for revenues of ₹7.85b in 2023 which, if met, would be a notable 19% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 8.9% to ₹9.10. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₹7.81b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹9.07 in 2023. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of ₹354, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aptus Value Housing Finance India at ₹399 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹314. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Aptus Value Housing Finance India's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 26% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 41% growth over the last year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Aptus Value Housing Finance India is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Aptus Value Housing Finance India going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Aptus Value Housing Finance India's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.