MRF Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, MRF Limited (NSE:MRF) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Revenue of ₹70b surpassed estimates by 4.4%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 27% below expectations at ₹744 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for MRF

After the latest results, the four analysts covering MRF are now predicting revenues of ₹301.0b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a decent 9.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 35% to ₹5,572. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹305.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹5,574 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at ₹116,536. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MRF at ₹160,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹92,500. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MRF's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that MRF's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MRF is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹116,536, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for MRF going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether MRF is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.