Earnings Beat: Nayax Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Nayax Ltd. (TLV:NYAX) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.0% to ₪106 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues of US$83m fell slightly short of expectations, but earnings were a definite bright spot, with statutory per-share profits of US$0.019 an impressive 307% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nayax after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Nayax

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Nayax's five analysts is for revenues of US$413.4m in 2025. This reflects a major 42% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Nayax is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.51 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$420.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.36 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the considerable lift to earnings per share expectations following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of ₪118, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Nayax analyst has a price target of ₪132 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₪105. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Nayax'shistorical trends, as the 32% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 31% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 15% per year. So although Nayax is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Nayax following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₪118, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Nayax going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Nayax that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.