Glanbia plc (ISE:GL9) Interim Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders might have noticed that Glanbia plc (ISE:GL9) filed its half-yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.8% to €16.25 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$1.8b and statutory earnings per share of US$1.30. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Glanbia

Taking into account the latest results, the nine analysts covering Glanbia provided consensus estimates of US$3.78b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a considerable 15% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$1.16, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.88b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.19 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of €20.81, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Glanbia's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Glanbia, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €26.00 and the most bearish at €14.50 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 28% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.7% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.2% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Glanbia's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Glanbia. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Glanbia going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Glanbia , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.