GBA Holdings Limited (HKG:261) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 29% Price Plummet

GBA Holdings Limited (HKG:261) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 29% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Still, a bad month hasn't completely ruined the past year with the stock gaining 68%, which is great even in a bull market.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, given close to half the companies operating in Hong Kong's Communications industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.5x, you may still consider GBA Holdings as a stock to potentially avoid with its 2.3x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

Check out our latest analysis for GBA Holdings

What Does GBA Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, GBA Holdings has been doing very well. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to outperform the wider market, which has seemingly got people interested in the stock. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on GBA Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, GBA Holdings would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 31%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year revenue frustratingly shrank by 14% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 36% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that GBA Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Despite the recent share price weakness, GBA Holdings' P/S remains higher than most other companies in the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that GBA Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for GBA Holdings (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.