China Brilliant Global Limited's (HKG:8026) 28% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

The China Brilliant Global Limited (HKG:8026) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 28%. Longer-term shareholders will rue the drop in the share price, since it's now virtually flat for the year after a promising few quarters.

Even after such a large drop in price, when almost half of the companies in Hong Kong's Retail Distributors industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.6x, you may still consider China Brilliant Global as a stock not worth researching with its 6.1x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

View our latest analysis for China Brilliant Global

How Has China Brilliant Global Performed Recently?

For example, consider that China Brilliant Global's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for China Brilliant Global, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, China Brilliant Global would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 16% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 3.8% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 19% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that China Brilliant Global is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Even after such a strong price drop, China Brilliant Global's P/S still exceeds the industry median significantly. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that China Brilliant Global currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with China Brilliant Global (at least 2 which make us uncomfortable), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.