CIFI Holdings (Group) (SEHK:884) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 884 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

884 (HK$0.86) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$10.68)

884 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

884 Stock Overview

CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd., an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and manages properties in the People’s Republic of China.

Rewards

Trading at 92% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 13.37% per year

Trading at good value vs. peer average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading at good value vs. industry average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading below our calculated fair Price-To-Earnings ratio

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

Profit margins (4.7%) are lower than last year (9.7%)

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

CIFI Holdings (Group) Competitors

Redco Properties Group

SEHK:1622

HK$6.8b

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group

SEHK:81

HK$10.9b

Midea Real Estate Holding

SEHK:3990

HK$10.2b

Shui On Land

SEHK:272

HK$6.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for CIFI Holdings (Group)
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	HK$0.86
52 Week High	HK$6.06
52 Week Low	HK$0.63
Beta	0.74
1 Month Change	-56.12%
3 Month Change	-76.24%
1 Year Change	-81.67%
3 Year Change	-80.43%
5 Year Change	-81.37%
Change since IPO	-31.73%

Recent News & Updates

Sep 07

CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. (HKG:884) Analysts Just Slashed This Year's Estimates

The analysts covering CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. ( HKG:884 ) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today...

Shareholder Returns

	884	HK Real Estate	HK Market
7D	-32.3%	-2.8%	-4.3%
1Y	-81.7%	-37.6%	-28.3%

Return vs Industry: 884 underperformed the Hong Kong Real Estate industry which returned -37.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 884 underperformed the Hong Kong Market which returned -28.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 884's price volatile compared to industry and market?
884 volatility
884 Average Weekly Movement	18.4%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	5.9%
Market Average Movement	6.5%
10% most volatile stocks in HK Market	12.7%
10% least volatile stocks in HK Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: 884 is more volatile than 90% of Hong Kong stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 18% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 884's weekly volatility (18%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of Hong Kong stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2000	25,785	Feng Lin	https://www.cifi.com.cn

CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd., an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and manages properties in the People’s Republic of China. The company operates through Sales of Properties and Other Property Related Services; Property Investment; and Property Management and Other Services segments. It develops and sells office and commercial premises, and residential properties; leases investment properties; and offers project management and other property related services.

CIFI Holdings (Group) Fundamentals Summary

How do CIFI Holdings (Group)'s earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
884 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	HK$8.04b
Earnings (TTM)	HK$5.23b
Revenue (TTM)	HK$111.65b

1.5x

P/E Ratio

0.1x

P/S Ratio

Is 884 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
884 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥101.18b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥82.14b
Gross Profit	CN¥19.04b
Other Expenses	CN¥14.30b
Earnings	CN¥4.74b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.51
Gross Margin	18.82%
Net Profit Margin	4.69%
Debt/Equity Ratio	108.0%

How did 884 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 884 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 884?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 884. This is calculated by dividing 884's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 884's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥7.28b

884 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.6x
PEG Ratio	0.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 884's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

884 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 884 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.1x
1622 Redco Properties Group	17.5x	n/a	HK$6.8b
81 China Overseas Grand Oceans Group	2.1x	-3.0%	HK$10.9b
3990 Midea Real Estate Holding	3x	5.2%	HK$10.2b
272 Shui On Land	6x	n/a	HK$6.6b
884 CIFI Holdings (Group)	1.5x	13.4%	HK$8.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 884 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (1.5x) compared to the peer average (7.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 884's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 884 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (1.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (5.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 884's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

884 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	1.5x
Fair PE Ratio	4.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 884 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (1.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 884 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 884 (HK$0.86) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$10.68)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 884 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is CIFI Holdings (Group) forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 22 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

13.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 884's forecast earnings growth (13.4% per year) is above the savings rate (1.6%).

Earnings vs Market: 884's earnings (13.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (16.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 884's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 884's revenue (7.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (9.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 884's revenue (7.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 884's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.5%).

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has CIFI Holdings (Group) performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

8.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 884 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 884's current net profit margins (4.7%) are lower than last year (9.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 884's earnings have grown by 8.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 884's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: 884 had negative earnings growth (-42.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Real Estate industry average (-5.8%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: 884's Return on Equity (8.4%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is CIFI Holdings (Group)'s financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 884's short term assets (CN¥328.9B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥203.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: 884's short term assets (CN¥328.9B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥100.7B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 884's net debt to equity ratio (78.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: 884's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 213% to 108% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 884's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (5.3%).

Interest Coverage: 884's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (183.2x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is CIFI Holdings (Group) current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

12.73%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

CIFI Holdings (Group) Dividend Yield vs Market

How does CIFI Holdings (Group) dividend yield compare to the market?
Segment	Dividend Yield
Company (CIFI Holdings (Group))	0%
Market Bottom 25% (HK)	3.1%
Market Top 25% (HK)	9.0%
Industry Average (Real Estate)	6.0%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (CIFI Holdings (Group))	12.7%

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate 884's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate 884's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 884's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if 884's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: 884 is not paying a notable dividend for the Hong Kong market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as 884 has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

10.0yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Feng Lin (47 yo)

11.42yrs

Tenure

CN¥6,603,000

Compensation

Mr. Feng Lin is the Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer of CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. He serves as Non-Executive Deputy Chairman of the Board at CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group Limited (fo...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Feng Lin's Compensation vs CIFI Holdings (Group) Earnings

How has Feng Lin's remuneration changed compared to CIFI Holdings (Group)'s earnings?
Date	Total Comp.	Salary	Company Earnings
Jun 30 2022	n/a	n/a	CN¥5b
Mar 31 2022	n/a	n/a	CN¥6b
Dec 31 2021	CN¥7m	CN¥6m	CN¥8b
Sep 30 2021	n/a	n/a	CN¥8b
Jun 30 2021	n/a	n/a	CN¥8b
Mar 31 2021	n/a	n/a	CN¥8b
Dec 31 2020	CN¥7m	CN¥7m	CN¥8b
Sep 30 2020	n/a	n/a	CN¥7b
Jun 30 2020	n/a	n/a	CN¥7b
Mar 31 2020	n/a	n/a	CN¥7b
Dec 31 2019	CN¥12m	CN¥6m	CN¥6b
Sep 30 2019	n/a	n/a	CN¥6b
Jun 30 2019	n/a	n/a	CN¥5b
Mar 31 2019	n/a	n/a	CN¥5b
Dec 31 2018	CN¥22m	CN¥6m	CN¥5b
Sep 30 2018	n/a	n/a	CN¥6b
Jun 30 2018	n/a	n/a	CN¥6b
Mar 31 2018	n/a	n/a	CN¥5b
Dec 31 2017	CN¥16m	CN¥5m	CN¥5b
Sep 30 2017	n/a	n/a	CN¥4b
Jun 30 2017	n/a	n/a	CN¥4b
Mar 31 2017	n/a	n/a	CN¥3b
Dec 31 2016	CN¥6m	CN¥3m	CN¥3b
Sep 30 2016	n/a	n/a	CN¥2b
Jun 30 2016	n/a	n/a	CN¥2b
Mar 31 2016	n/a	n/a	CN¥2b
Dec 31 2015	CN¥5m	CN¥3m	CN¥2b

Compensation vs Market: Feng's total compensation ($USD928.17K) is above average for companies of similar size in the Hong Kong market ($USD565.73K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Feng's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Board Members

Experienced Board: 884's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: 884 insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

SEHK:884 Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
Date	Value	Name	Entity	Shares	Max Price
19 Sep 22	BuyHK$825,000	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	500,000	HK$1.65
08 Sep 22	BuyHK$1,860,004	Feng Lin	Individual	1,000,000	HK$1.86
08 Sep 22	BuyHK$1,860,004	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	1,000,000	HK$1.86
02 Sep 22	BuyHK$1,977,398	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	1,000,000	HK$1.98
31 Aug 22	BuyHK$2,001,996	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	1,000,000	HK$2.00
31 Aug 22	BuyHK$628,148,046	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	304,926,000	HK$2.06
27 Jul 22	BuyHK$1,109,998	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	500,000	HK$2.22
22 Jul 22	BuyHK$983,249	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	500,000	HK$1.97
18 Jul 22	BuyHK$484,001	Caiyi Lin	Individual	200,000	HK$2.42
15 Jul 22	BuyHK$876,995	Yongyue Zhang	Individual	350,000	HK$2.51
14 Jul 22	BuyHK$1,364,351	Feng Lin	Individual	500,000	HK$2.73
13 Jul 22	BuyHK$2,570,004	Feng Lin	Individual	1,000,000	HK$2.57
07 Jul 22	SellHK$3,480,068	Dongbiao Chen	Individual	1,004,000	HK$3.47
06 Jul 22	SellHK$5,735,761	Dongbiao Chen	Individual	1,590,000	HK$3.61
05 Jul 22	SellHK$1,525,666	Dongbiao Chen	Individual	406,000	HK$3.76
23 Jun 22	SellHK$3,445,642	Dongbiao Chen	Individual	972,000	HK$3.54
22 Jun 22	SellHK$6,215,533	Dongbiao Chen	Individual	1,778,000	HK$3.50
21 Jun 22	SellHK$885,999	Dongbiao Chen	Individual	250,000	HK$3.54
14 Jun 22	SellHK$5,205,995	Dongbiao Chen	Individual	1,659,840	HK$3.14
13 Jun 22	SellHK$153,598	Dongbiao Chen	Individual	47,840	HK$3.21
10 Jun 22	SellHK$1,472,188	Dongbiao Chen	Individual	426,400	HK$3.45
21 Apr 22	BuyHK$1,819,998	Feng Lin	Individual	520,000	HK$3.50
21 Apr 22	BuyHK$3,657,993	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	1,040,000	HK$3.52
20 Apr 22	BuyHK$5,132,569	Zhong Lin	Individual	1,283,360	HK$4.00
12 Apr 22	BuyHK$8,733,195	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	2,080,000	HK$4.20
01 Apr 22	BuyHK$364,500	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	93,600	HK$3.89
30 Mar 22	BuyHK$4,529,694	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	1,040,000	HK$4.36
29 Mar 22	BuyHK$997,498	Feng Lin	Individual	260,000	HK$3.84
29 Mar 22	BuyHK$3,999,997	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	1,040,000	HK$3.85
28 Mar 22	BuyHK$4,039,397	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	1,040,000	HK$3.88
25 Mar 22	BuyHK$2,084,949	Zhong Lin	Individual	520,000	HK$4.01
25 Mar 22	BuyHK$1,846,796	Feng Lin	Individual	474,240	HK$3.89
25 Mar 22	BuyHK$4,169,296	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	1,040,000	HK$4.01
29 Dec 21	BuyHK$43,913,728	Feng Lin	Individual	11,417,566.16	HK$3.85
29 Dec 21	BuyHK$540,448,835	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	140,516,657.84	HK$3.85
29 Dec 21	BuyHK$249,771,922	Sun Success Trust	Company	64,940,681.52	HK$3.85
20 Dec 21	BuyHK$39,999,951	Wei Lin	Individual	10,400,000	HK$3.85
14 Dec 21	BuyHK$2,578,578	Xin Yang	Individual	670,431.84	HK$3.85
10 Dec 21	BuyHK$299,008	Wee Seng Tan	Individual	77,742.08	HK$3.85
10 Nov 21	BuyHK$402,920	Wee Seng Tan	Individual	104,000	HK$3.87
04 Nov 21	BuyHK$1,352,799	Yongyue Zhang	Individual	332,800	HK$4.06
03 Nov 21	BuyHK$172,400	Yongyue Zhang	Individual	41,600	HK$4.14
29 Oct 21	BuyHK$8,697,788	Feng Lin	Individual	2,080,000	HK$4.18
29 Oct 21	BuyHK$8,697,788	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	Company	2,080,000	HK$4.18

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of 884?
Owner Type	Number of Shares	Ownership Percentage
Individual Insiders	1,020,641,525	10.9%
Institutions	1,693,345,625	18.1%
General Public	2,533,734,324	27.1%
Private Companies	4,098,126,406	43.8%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 8.3%.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 70.15% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
29.26%	Rosy Fortune Investments Limited	2,734,372,105	CN¥2.4b	0.16%	no data
14.59%	Sun Success Trust	1,363,754,301	CN¥1.2b	0%	no data
7.64%	Wei Lin	714,452,194	CN¥614.4m	-1.16%	no data
5.86%	Ping'an Assets Management Co., Ltd.	548,080,000	CN¥471.3m	0%	0.36%
2.76%	Feng Lin	257,763,464	CN¥221.7m	0.98%	no data
1.95%	The Vanguard Group, Inc.	182,019,688	CN¥156.5m	0.99%	no data
1.31%	BlackRock, Inc.	122,731,227	CN¥105.5m	6.74%	no data
1.04%	Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	97,063,493	CN¥83.5m	-2.27%	no data
0.83%	Norges Bank Investment Management	77,149,638	CN¥66.3m	0%	no data
0.53%	AllianceBernstein L.P.	49,094,671	CN¥42.2m	-0.43%	no data
0.51%	SEI Investments Company	47,797,779	CN¥41.1m	2.36%	0.01%
0.49%	FMR LLC	46,102,211	CN¥39.6m	-26.13%	no data
0.44%	Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited	41,094,133	CN¥35.3m	0.29%	0.02%
0.44%	Matthews International Capital Management, LLC	40,756,768	CN¥35.1m	12.5%	0.03%
0.38%	Value Partners Hong Kong Limited	35,950,860	CN¥30.9m	0%	0.11%
0.34%	State Street Global Advisors, Inc.	32,052,908	CN¥27.6m	33.66%	no data
0.33%	Amundi Asset Management	30,550,214	CN¥26.3m	9.1%	no data
0.26%	Geode Capital Management, LLC	24,643,680	CN¥21.2m	1.76%	no data
0.25%	Allianz Asset Management AG	23,260,224	CN¥20.0m	5.42%	no data
0.22%	HSBC Jintrust Fund Management Company Limited	20,129,512	CN¥17.3m	0%	0.05%
0.16%	Dongbiao Chen	14,924,423	CN¥12.8m	-19.05%	no data
0.15%	Xin Yang	14,303,603	CN¥12.3m	1.59%	no data
0.14%	Lombarda China Fund Management Co., Ltd.	12,852,944	CN¥11.1m	0%	no data
0.14%	Wellington Management Group LLP	12,716,843	CN¥10.9m	-35.16%	no data
0.13%	Essence Fund Management Co., Ltd	12,488,320	CN¥10.7m	0%	0.04%

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
884	SEHK (The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Ltd.)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	HK	HKD	Nov 2012
6CI	DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	DE	EUR	Nov 2012
884	SHSC (Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited - Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	HK	HKD	Nov 2012
884	SZSC (The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	HK	HKD	Nov 2012
CFFH.F	OTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	US	USD	Nov 2012

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/10/04 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/10/03 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31