Is Chinney Investments (HKG:216) Using Too Much Debt?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Chinney Investments, Limited (HKG:216) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Chinney Investments

How Much Debt Does Chinney Investments Carry?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2020, Chinney Investments had HK$6.44b of debt, up from HK$5.61b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has HK$2.02b in cash leading to net debt of about HK$4.43b.

How Strong Is Chinney Investments's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Chinney Investments had liabilities of HK$4.02b due within 12 months, and liabilities of HK$4.85b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had HK$2.02b in cash and HK$20.6m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling HK$6.83b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This deficit casts a shadow over the HK$937.3m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Chinney Investments would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Weak interest cover of 1.4 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 17.0 hit our confidence in Chinney Investments like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. On a lighter note, we note that Chinney Investments grew its EBIT by 20% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Chinney Investments's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Chinney Investments recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.

Our View

On the face of it, Chinney Investments's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Chinney Investments has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Chinney Investments (at least 2 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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