Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Hysan Development Company Limited (HKG:14)

Does the May share price for Hysan Development Company Limited (HKG:14) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Hysan Development

Crunching the numbers

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (HK$, Millions)	HK$2.41b	HK$2.49b	HK$2.62b	HK$2.71b	HK$2.79b	HK$2.86b	HK$2.92b	HK$2.98b	HK$3.04b	HK$3.09b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Est @ 3.59%	Est @ 2.96%	Est @ 2.51%	Est @ 2.2%	Est @ 1.99%	Est @ 1.83%	Est @ 1.73%
Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.0%	HK$2.2k	HK$2.1k	HK$2.0k	HK$1.9k	HK$1.8k	HK$1.7k	HK$1.6k	HK$1.5k	HK$1.4k	HK$1.3k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$18b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$3.1b× (1 + 1.5%) ÷ (9.0%– 1.5%) = HK$42b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= HK$42b÷ ( 1 + 9.0%)¹⁰= HK$18b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is HK$35b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$29.1, the company appears about fair value at a 14% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Hysan Development as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.420. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Hysan Development, we've compiled three fundamental factors you should further research:

1. Risks: Be aware that Hysan Development is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Future Earnings: How does 14's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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