China Overseas Land & Investment Limited Just Missed EPS By 29%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (HKG:688) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CN¥185b revenue coming in 6.3% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.44 missed the mark badly, arriving some 29% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for China Overseas Land & Investment from 21 analysts is for revenues of CN¥191.0b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 3.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be CN¥1.45, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥200.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.07 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for China Overseas Land & Investment

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of HK$16.37, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on China Overseas Land & Investment's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Overseas Land & Investment at HK$21.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$12.13. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the China Overseas Land & Investment's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting China Overseas Land & Investment's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 3.1% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.6% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, China Overseas Land & Investment is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple China Overseas Land & Investment analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for China Overseas Land & Investment that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.