Seazen Group Limited (HKG:1030) Analysts Are More Bearish Than They Used To Be

One thing we could say about the analysts on Seazen Group Limited (HKG:1030) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

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Following the latest downgrade, the five analysts covering Seazen Group provided consensus estimates of CN¥59b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a concerning 34% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to increase 8.6% to CN¥0.075. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥68b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.20 in 2025. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a pretty serious decline to earnings per share numbers as well.

View our latest analysis for Seazen Group

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 7.1% to CN¥1.86, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Seazen Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥2.80 and the most bearish at CN¥1.07 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 3.3% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 34% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 4.8% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Seazen Group is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Seazen Group. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. The increasing price target is not intuitively what we would expect to see, given these downgrades, and we'd suggest shareholders revisit their investment thesis before making a decision.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Seazen Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.