Keymed Biosciences Inc. (HKG:2162) Just Reported Full-Year Earnings And Analysts Are Lifting Their Estimates

Keymed Biosciences Inc. (HKG:2162) just released its latest full-year results and things are looking bullish. Revenue crushed expectations at CN¥428m, beating expectations by 155%. Keymed Biosciences reported a statutory loss of CN¥1.97 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Keymed Biosciences from nine analysts is for revenues of CN¥675.8m in 2025. If met, it would imply a major 58% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching CN¥2.83 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CN¥586.0m and CN¥2.77 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts lifting this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share numbers to reflect the cost of achieving this growth.

View our latest analysis for Keymed Biosciences

The consensus price target stayed unchanged at HK$55.18, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Keymed Biosciences at HK$59.94 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$48.64. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Keymed Biosciences is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Keymed Biosciences' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Keymed Biosciences' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 58% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 45% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 26% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Keymed Biosciences to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Keymed Biosciences. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Keymed Biosciences analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Keymed Biosciences you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.