Ocumension Therapeutics (HKG:1477) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

As you might know, Ocumension Therapeutics (HKG:1477) last week released its latest annual, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. The numbers were fairly weak, with revenue of CN¥417m missing analyst predictions by 9.4%, and (statutory) losses of CN¥0.39 per share being slightly larger than what the analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Ocumension Therapeutics after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ocumension Therapeutics' twin analysts is for revenues of CN¥806.8m in 2025. This reflects a major 93% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 57% to CN¥0.14. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥967.7m and losses of CN¥0.085 per share in 2025. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Ocumension Therapeutics

The average price target was broadly unchanged at HK$8.06, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Ocumension Therapeutics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 93% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 60% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.0% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Ocumension Therapeutics to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Ocumension Therapeutics. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$8.06, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Ocumension Therapeutics .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.