Pacific Online Limited's (HKG:543) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?

Pacific Online (HKG:543) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 16% over the last three months. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. In this article, we decided to focus on Pacific Online's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for Pacific Online

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Pacific Online is:

13% = CN¥116m ÷ CN¥927m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. That means that for every HK$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated HK$0.13 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Pacific Online's Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

To begin with, Pacific Online seems to have a respectable ROE. Especially when compared to the industry average of 10% the company's ROE looks pretty impressive. For this reason, Pacific Online's five year net income decline of 8.2% raises the question as to why the high ROE didn't translate into earnings growth. Therefore, there might be some other aspects that could explain this. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

However, when we compared Pacific Online's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 27% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Pacific Online is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Pacific Online Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Pacific Online's high three-year median payout ratio of 106% suggests that the company is depleting its resources to keep up its dividend payments, and this shows in its shrinking earnings. Its usually very hard to sustain dividend payments that are higher than reported profits. Our risks dashboard should have the 3 risks we have identified for Pacific Online.

Additionally, Pacific Online has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth.

Conclusion

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Pacific Online's performance. In spite of the high ROE, the company has failed to see growth in its earnings due to it paying out most of its profits as dividend, with almost nothing left to invest into its own business. So far, we've only made a quick discussion around the company's earnings growth. To gain further insights into Pacific Online's past profit growth, check out this visualization of past earnings, revenue and cash flows.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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