Shougang Century Holdings Limited's (HKG:103) 25% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Shougang Century Holdings Limited (HKG:103) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 25% after a shaky period beforehand. The annual gain comes to 112% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

After such a large jump in price, Shougang Century Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 44x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 11x and even P/E's below 6x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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For example, consider that Shougang Century Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Shougang Century Holdings

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Shougang Century Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

Shougang Century Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 51%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 72% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 19% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Shougang Century Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Shougang Century Holdings' P/E?

The strong share price surge has got Shougang Century Holdings' P/E rushing to great heights as well. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Shougang Century Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Having said that, be aware Shougang Century Holdings is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those can't be ignored.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.