Gaush Meditech Ltd's (HKG:2407) 25% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Despite an already strong run, Gaush Meditech Ltd (HKG:2407) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 25% in the last thirty days. The bad news is that even after the stocks recovery in the last 30 days, shareholders are still underwater by about 6.2% over the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Gaush Meditech's P/E ratio of 12.2x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Hong Kong is also close to 12x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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Earnings have risen firmly for Gaush Meditech recently, which is pleasing to see. It might be that many expect the respectable earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

View our latest analysis for Gaush Meditech

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Gaush Meditech's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

Gaush Meditech's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 13%. Still, EPS has barely risen at all in aggregate from three years ago, which is not ideal. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 19% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's curious that Gaush Meditech's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Gaush Meditech's P/E

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Gaush Meditech's P/E is also back up to the market median. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Gaush Meditech currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Gaush Meditech that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.