China Feihe Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that China Feihe Limited (HKG:6186) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.7% to HK$5.87 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of CN¥21b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 12% to hit CN¥0.39 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from China Feihe's 14 analysts is for revenues of CN¥22.1b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 6.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 13% to CN¥0.44. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥21.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.48 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for China Feihe

The consensus price target held steady at HK$6.24, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values China Feihe at HK$7.41 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$4.41. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that China Feihe's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.5% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect China Feihe to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China Feihe. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$6.24, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on China Feihe. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple China Feihe analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of China Feihe's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.