Earnings Miss: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited Missed EPS By 24% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited (HKG:168) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥8.9b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 24%, coming in at just CN¥0.99 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Tsingtao Brewery

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Tsingtao Brewery's 35 analysts is for revenues of CN¥34.2b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 7.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 14% to CN¥3.64. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥34.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.71 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of HK$63.84, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Tsingtao Brewery analyst has a price target of HK$83.46 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$44.05. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Tsingtao Brewery'shistorical trends, as the 5.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 4.8% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.4% per year. So although Tsingtao Brewery is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Tsingtao Brewery's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Tsingtao Brewery going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Tsingtao Brewery (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.