Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited

SEHK:168 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$98.9b

Tsingtao Brewery Valuation

Is 168 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 168 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 168 (HK$52.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$103.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 168 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 168?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

168 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA13.6x
PEG Ratio1.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 168's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 168 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.8x
291 China Resources Beer (Holdings)
20.5x12.6%HK$114.5b
1876 Budweiser Brewing Company APAC
22.7x12.8%HK$151.1b
2319 China Mengniu Dairy
12.9x16.5%HK$67.2b
288 WH Group
15.1x17.2%HK$74.5b
168 Tsingtao Brewery
15.3x9.9%HK$98.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 168 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x) compared to the peer average (17.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 168's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Beverage Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.1%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.1%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 168 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x) compared to the Asian Beverage industry average (22.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 168's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

168 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.3x
Fair PE Ratio14x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 168 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 168 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$52.70
HK$77.08
+46.3%
21.2%HK$114.50HK$45.89n/a26
Mar ’25HK$51.10
HK$78.86
+54.3%
21.1%HK$115.05HK$46.10n/a26
Feb ’25HK$45.50
HK$81.56
+79.2%
20.9%HK$115.75HK$46.39n/a27
Jan ’25HK$52.40
HK$88.10
+68.1%
12.9%HK$115.51HK$62.81n/a27
Dec ’24HK$51.00
HK$87.63
+71.8%
13.5%HK$115.25HK$61.42n/a27
Nov ’24HK$58.00
HK$86.49
+49.1%
13.4%HK$113.06HK$60.25n/a27
Oct ’24HK$64.10
HK$91.68
+43.0%
10.9%HK$113.34HK$68.01n/a27
Sep ’24HK$65.35
HK$92.46
+41.5%
10.2%HK$108.93HK$68.47n/a28
Aug ’24HK$68.10
HK$94.45
+38.7%
11.2%HK$114.45HK$73.48n/a28
Jul ’24HK$71.20
HK$93.88
+31.9%
11.4%HK$110.78HK$73.05n/a28
Jun ’24HK$66.45
HK$95.15
+43.2%
11.9%HK$113.26HK$73.02n/a28
May ’24HK$83.70
HK$96.41
+15.2%
12.1%HK$116.19HK$73.17n/a26
Apr ’24HK$85.70
HK$94.09
+9.8%
11.2%HK$113.00HK$73.18n/a27
Mar ’24HK$80.90
HK$90.09
+11.4%
12.9%HK$116.75HK$67.96HK$51.1025
Feb ’24HK$76.90
HK$91.78
+19.4%
11.8%HK$109.40HK$70.03HK$45.5025
Jan ’24HK$77.10
HK$87.09
+13.0%
11.8%HK$105.09HK$65.52HK$52.4025
Dec ’23HK$74.00
HK$84.78
+14.6%
11.7%HK$102.47HK$63.89HK$51.0025
Nov ’23HK$60.70
HK$83.91
+38.2%
11.6%HK$101.54HK$64.59HK$58.0025
Oct ’23HK$74.45
HK$85.72
+15.1%
10.2%HK$99.99HK$66.32HK$64.1025
Sep ’23HK$73.65
HK$87.44
+18.7%
10.6%HK$104.94HK$68.62HK$65.3524
Aug ’23HK$79.90
HK$82.21
+2.9%
15.0%HK$106.85HK$54.59HK$68.1024
Jul ’23HK$81.60
HK$79.67
-2.4%
12.2%HK$96.86HK$57.24HK$71.2023
Jun ’23HK$67.40
HK$78.78
+16.9%
14.0%HK$97.14HK$57.40HK$66.4523
May ’23HK$64.45
HK$81.34
+26.2%
13.2%HK$98.28HK$61.45HK$83.7021
Apr ’23HK$62.70
HK$84.70
+35.1%
13.6%HK$113.30HK$64.07HK$85.7021
Mar ’23HK$78.25
HK$88.08
+12.6%
12.4%HK$113.96HK$64.98HK$80.9021

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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