China Resources Beer (Holdings) (SEHK:291) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets

Q: What is the Fair Price of 291 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

291 (HK$26.7) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$59.19)

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 291 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 291 (HK$26.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$59.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 291 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 291?

Key metric: As 291 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 291. This is calculated by dividing 291's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 291's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	15.5x
Earnings	CN¥5.21b
Market Cap	CN¥82.26b

291 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.8x
PEG Ratio	1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 291's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 291 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	14.5x
168 Tsingtao Brewery	13.9x	7.4%	HK$87.3b
1876 Budweiser Brewing Company APAC	17.5x	14.3%	HK$99.7b
288 WH Group	11.8x	7.7%	HK$90.9b
2319 China Mengniu Dairy	14.8x	11.1%	HK$67.0b
291 China Resources Beer (Holdings)	15.5x	10.4%	HK$88.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 291 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the peer average (14.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 291's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Beverage Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 291 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the Asian Beverage industry average (19x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 291's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

291 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.5x
Fair PE Ratio	17.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 291 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 291 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$26.70	HK$37.53 +40.6%	22.0%	HK$63.20	HK$26.00	n/a	30
Nov ’25	HK$29.30	HK$38.11 +30.1%	23.2%	HK$63.20	HK$26.00	n/a	30
Oct ’25	HK$34.00	HK$37.80 +11.2%	23.2%	HK$63.20	HK$26.00	n/a	30
Sep ’25	HK$24.25	HK$37.71 +55.5%	23.1%	HK$63.20	HK$26.00	n/a	30
Aug ’25	HK$23.95	HK$44.88 +87.4%	18.6%	HK$69.80	HK$33.00	n/a	30
Jul ’25	HK$26.25	HK$48.57 +85.0%	14.7%	HK$69.80	HK$33.00	n/a	29
Jun ’25	HK$31.35	HK$49.10 +56.6%	15.6%	HK$69.80	HK$33.00	n/a	29
May ’25	HK$36.00	HK$48.96 +36.0%	15.9%	HK$69.80	HK$33.00	n/a	29
Apr ’25	HK$36.05	HK$49.83 +38.2%	17.4%	HK$72.50	HK$33.00	n/a	30
Mar ’25	HK$33.40	HK$51.60 +54.5%	22.7%	HK$74.80	HK$28.60	n/a	32
Feb ’25	HK$29.40	HK$53.26 +81.1%	22.5%	HK$74.80	HK$28.60	n/a	30
Jan ’25	HK$34.20	HK$62.25 +82.0%	15.8%	HK$84.00	HK$39.00	n/a	30
Dec ’24	HK$34.75	HK$63.26 +82.0%	14.2%	HK$84.00	HK$39.00	n/a	29
Nov ’24	HK$41.10	HK$64.90 +57.9%	13.4%	HK$84.00	HK$40.50	HK$29.30	29
Oct ’24	HK$42.95	HK$66.64 +55.2%	13.4%	HK$84.00	HK$40.50	HK$34.00	32
Sep ’24	HK$46.10	HK$66.81 +44.9%	13.1%	HK$84.00	HK$40.50	HK$24.25	33
Aug ’24	HK$48.80	HK$72.40 +48.4%	9.1%	HK$80.40	HK$49.00	HK$23.95	33
Jul ’24	HK$51.60	HK$73.54 +42.5%	9.0%	HK$83.00	HK$49.00	HK$26.25	33
Jun ’24	HK$48.15	HK$73.99 +53.7%	8.8%	HK$83.00	HK$49.00	HK$31.35	33
May ’24	HK$60.35	HK$73.73 +22.2%	8.8%	HK$83.00	HK$49.00	HK$36.00	33
Apr ’24	HK$63.00	HK$73.73 +17.0%	8.8%	HK$83.00	HK$49.00	HK$36.05	33
Mar ’24	HK$62.65	HK$69.92 +11.6%	10.3%	HK$83.00	HK$45.00	HK$33.40	30
Feb ’24	HK$59.60	HK$68.77 +15.4%	10.2%	HK$83.00	HK$45.00	HK$29.40	30
Jan ’24	HK$54.55	HK$66.63 +22.1%	12.1%	HK$83.00	HK$45.00	HK$34.20	30
Dec ’23	HK$54.25	HK$66.86 +23.3%	12.4%	HK$83.00	HK$45.00	HK$34.75	30
Nov ’23	HK$40.80	HK$67.25 +64.8%	12.0%	HK$83.00	HK$45.00	HK$41.10	30

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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China Resources Beer (Holdings) Valuation