Stock Analysis

China Shengmu Organic Milk Limited (HKG:1432) Stock's Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Decent: Will The Market Correct The Share Price In The Future?

SEHK:1432
Source: Shutterstock

China Shengmu Organic Milk (HKG:1432) has had a rough month with its share price down 15%. However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. In this article, we decided to focus on China Shengmu Organic Milk's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

See our latest analysis for China Shengmu Organic Milk

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for China Shengmu Organic Milk is:

12% = CN¥322m ÷ CN¥2.7b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each HK$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made HK$0.12 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

China Shengmu Organic Milk's Earnings Growth And 12% ROE

At first glance, China Shengmu Organic Milk seems to have a decent ROE. Even when compared to the industry average of 11% the company's ROE looks quite decent. For this reason, China Shengmu Organic Milk's five year net income decline of 49% raises the question as to why the decent ROE didn't translate into growth. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that are preventing the company's growth. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

So, as a next step, we compared China Shengmu Organic Milk's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 12% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
SEHK:1432 Past Earnings Growth March 12th 2021

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about China Shengmu Organic Milk's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is China Shengmu Organic Milk Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that China Shengmu Organic Milk certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return and is reinvesting ma huge portion of its profits. By the looks of it, there could be some other factors, not necessarily in control of the business, that's preventing growth. While we won't completely dismiss the company, what we would do, is try to ascertain how risky the business is to make a more informed decision around the company. Our risks dashboard would have the 5 risks we have identified for China Shengmu Organic Milk.

If you decide to trade China Shengmu Organic Milk, use the lowest-cost* platform that is rated #1 Overall by Barron’s, Interactive Brokers. Trade stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds and funds on 135 markets, all from a single integrated account. Promoted


Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether China Shengmu Organic Milk is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
*Interactive Brokers Rated Lowest Cost Broker by StockBrokers.com Annual Online Review 2020


Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.