Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For OSL Group Limited (HKG:863)

OSL Group Limited's (HKG:863) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 17.1x may look like a poor investment opportunity when you consider close to half the companies in the Capital Markets industry in Hong Kong have P/S ratios below 2.3x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

See our latest analysis for OSL Group

How OSL Group Has Been Performing

OSL Group has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing revenue at a reasonable pace. It might be that many expect the reasonable revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on OSL Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For OSL Group?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as steep as OSL Group's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 6.8% gain to the company's revenues. Still, lamentably revenue has fallen 23% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 18% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that OSL Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of OSL Group revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You need to take note of risks, for example - OSL Group has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.