Revenues Not Telling The Story For OCI International Holdings Limited (HKG:329) After Shares Rise 29%

OCI International Holdings Limited (HKG:329) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 29% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 16% over that time.

After such a large jump in price, when almost half of the companies in Hong Kong's Capital Markets industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 3.5x, you may consider OCI International Holdings as a stock not worth researching with its 6.5x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for OCI International Holdings

What Does OCI International Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Recent times have been quite advantageous for OCI International Holdings as its revenue has been rising very briskly. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to outperform the wider market, which has seemingly got people interested in the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on OCI International Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

OCI International Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 36% last year. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year revenue frustratingly shrank by 52% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 26% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that OCI International Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From OCI International Holdings' P/S?

OCI International Holdings' P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our examination of OCI International Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for OCI International Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.