A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of WWPKG Holdings Company Limited (HKG:8069)

Key Insights

• WWPKG Holdings' estimated fair value is HK$0.11 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of HK$0.10 suggests WWPKG Holdings is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Peers of WWPKG Holdings are currently trading on average at a 15% premium

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of WWPKG Holdings Company Limited (HKG:8069) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for WWPKG Holdings

Crunching The Numbers

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (HK$, Millions)	HK$2.46m	HK$3.27m	HK$4.04m	HK$4.74m	HK$5.33m	HK$5.83m	HK$6.24m	HK$6.59m	HK$6.88m	HK$7.14m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 46.35%	Est @ 33.01%	Est @ 23.67%	Est @ 17.13%	Est @ 12.56%	Est @ 9.35%	Est @ 7.11%	Est @ 5.54%	Est @ 4.44%	Est @ 3.67%
Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 9.3%	HK$2.2	HK$2.7	HK$3.1	HK$3.3	HK$3.4	HK$3.4	HK$3.4	HK$3.2	HK$3.1	HK$2.9

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$31m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$7.1m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (9.3%– 1.9%) = HK$98m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= HK$98m÷ ( 1 + 9.3%)¹⁰= HK$41m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is HK$71m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$0.1, the company appears about fair value at a 2.9% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at WWPKG Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.249. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for WWPKG Holdings

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For WWPKG Holdings, we've put together three further aspects you should explore:

1. Risks: To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with WWPKG Holdings (including 1 which can't be ignored) .
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.