Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited (HKG:780) Just Released Its First-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

There's been a notable change in appetite for Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited (HKG:780) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 16% to HK$17.90. Overall the results were a little better than the analysts were expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 3.2%to hit CN¥3.9b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Tongcheng Travel Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Tongcheng Travel Holdings' 25 analysts is for revenues of CN¥17.8b in 2024. This reflects a major 35% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥17.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.89 in 2024. What's really interesting is that while the consensus made a small increase to revenue estimates, it no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are now the focus of the business after this latest result.

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of HK$23.67. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Tongcheng Travel Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$28.19 and the most bearish at HK$19.99 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Tongcheng Travel Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 50% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Tongcheng Travel Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The highlight for us was that the analysts increased their revenue forecasts for Tongcheng Travel Holdings next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$23.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

At least one of Tongcheng Travel Holdings' 25 analysts has provided estimates out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Tongcheng Travel Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.