Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited

SEHK:780 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$44.9b

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Valuation

Is 780 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 780 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 780 (HK$19.84) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$20.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 780 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 780?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

780 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA13.6x
PEG Ratio1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 780's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 780 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average36.1x
696 TravelSky Technology
18.1x22.0%HK$27.1b
69 Shangri-La Asia
12.7x24.9%HK$18.4b
308 China Travel International Investment Hong Kong
46.9x56.4%HK$7.2b
45 Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels
66.8xn/aHK$9.7b
780 Tongcheng Travel Holdings
26.7x18.0%HK$44.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 780 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the peer average (36.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 780's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Hospitality Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a28.1%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a28.1%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 780 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the Hong Kong Hospitality industry average (12.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 780's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

780 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.7x
Fair PE Ratio16.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 780 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 780 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$19.84
HK$22.87
+15.2%
10.0%HK$27.39HK$16.88n/a23
Mar ’25HK$19.58
HK$21.90
+11.9%
12.9%HK$27.49HK$15.92n/a23
Feb ’25HK$15.76
HK$21.89
+38.9%
12.9%HK$27.49HK$15.92n/a23
Jan ’25HK$14.44
HK$22.12
+53.2%
14.0%HK$29.09HK$15.99n/a23
Dec ’24HK$14.18
HK$22.06
+55.6%
13.9%HK$29.00HK$15.95n/a23
Nov ’24HK$14.54
HK$22.51
+54.8%
12.0%HK$29.01HK$16.97n/a23
Oct ’24HK$17.20
HK$22.73
+32.2%
10.6%HK$29.00HK$18.92n/a23
Sep ’24HK$17.58
HK$22.94
+30.5%
10.2%HK$28.78HK$19.05n/a24
Aug ’24HK$18.94
HK$21.85
+15.4%
11.7%HK$28.63HK$17.66n/a23
Jul ’24HK$16.38
HK$21.66
+32.2%
11.9%HK$28.43HK$17.54n/a22
Jun ’24HK$15.64
HK$22.02
+40.8%
11.8%HK$28.98HK$17.95n/a22
May ’24HK$16.60
HK$21.54
+29.8%
9.2%HK$25.89HK$17.93n/a22
Apr ’24HK$17.08
HK$21.67
+26.9%
9.2%HK$26.05HK$18.03n/a22
Mar ’24HK$16.44
HK$20.53
+24.9%
10.6%HK$23.82HK$14.52HK$19.5822
Feb ’24HK$18.08
HK$20.73
+14.7%
10.5%HK$23.20HK$14.89HK$15.7621
Jan ’24HK$18.78
HK$18.05
-3.9%
10.2%HK$21.52HK$14.51HK$14.4419
Dec ’23HK$16.24
HK$16.88
+3.9%
7.5%HK$18.96HK$13.91HK$14.1819
Nov ’23HK$13.38
HK$17.32
+29.4%
7.3%HK$19.00HK$14.02HK$14.5419
Oct ’23HK$15.40
HK$18.34
+19.1%
5.8%HK$19.77HK$16.00HK$17.2019
Sep ’23HK$15.84
HK$18.56
+17.2%
6.1%HK$19.92HK$15.54HK$17.5819
Aug ’23HK$15.40
HK$17.88
+16.1%
8.4%HK$20.99HK$15.15HK$18.9419
Jul ’23HK$16.88
HK$17.55
+4.0%
8.2%HK$21.01HK$15.27HK$16.3819
Jun ’23HK$14.42
HK$17.42
+20.8%
7.1%HK$20.00HK$15.29HK$15.6419
May ’23HK$14.12
HK$17.89
+26.7%
9.4%HK$22.18HK$15.41HK$16.6019
Apr ’23HK$14.20
HK$18.75
+32.0%
9.8%HK$23.10HK$16.04HK$17.0819
Mar ’23HK$14.56
HK$20.90
+43.6%
8.0%HK$25.39HK$18.10HK$16.4419

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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