Tongcheng Travel Holdings Valuation
Is 780 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 780 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 780 (HK$18.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$43.87)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 780 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 780?
Key metric: As 780 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 780's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 19.8x |
| Earnings | CN¥1.93b |
| Market Cap | CN¥38.34b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 2.1x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 11.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 780's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 27x | ||
696 TravelSky Technology | 17.7x | 17.2% | HK$29.8b |
69 Shangri-La Asia | 16x | 34.5% | HK$18.4b |
71 Miramar Hotel and Investment Company | 6.6x | n/a | HK$6.4b |
308 China Travel International Investment Hong Kong | 67.7x | 39.0% | HK$5.3b |
780 Tongcheng Travel Holdings | 19.8x | 19.5% | HK$41.2b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 780 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x) compared to the peer average (27x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 780's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Hospitality Industry?
| 4 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
1383 LET Group Holdings | 1.3x | n/a | US$38.09m |
1655 Okura Holdings | 0.8x | n/a | US$10.79m |
8052 Luk Hing Entertainment Group Holdings | 1.2x | n/a | US$2.54m |
8510 Top Standard | 0.9x | n/a | US$2.25m |
| 4 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 780 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x) compared to the Hong Kong Hospitality industry average (15.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 780's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 19.8x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 15.6x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 780 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | HK$18.04 | HK$22.55 +25.0% | 12.3% | HK$27.48 | HK$17.71 | n/a | 23 |
| Nov ’25 | HK$17.50 | HK$20.83 +19.0% | 13.1% | HK$27.88 | HK$16.82 | n/a | 23 |
| Oct ’25 | HK$19.96 | HK$20.02 +0.3% | 13.5% | HK$23.92 | HK$14.18 | n/a | 23 |
| Sep ’25 | HK$14.56 | HK$19.71 +35.4% | 13.3% | HK$23.66 | HK$14.03 | n/a | 23 |
| Aug ’25 | HK$13.10 | HK$21.99 +67.8% | 13.5% | HK$28.29 | HK$16.95 | n/a | 23 |
| Jul ’25 | HK$15.54 | HK$23.62 +52.0% | 8.1% | HK$28.11 | HK$19.93 | n/a | 23 |
| Jun ’25 | HK$17.86 | HK$23.68 +32.6% | 8.1% | HK$28.18 | HK$19.99 | n/a | 23 |
| May ’25 | HK$20.75 | HK$23.42 +12.8% | 10.0% | HK$28.19 | HK$16.85 | n/a | 23 |
| Apr ’25 | HK$20.65 | HK$23.04 +11.6% | 9.8% | HK$27.41 | HK$16.87 | n/a | 23 |
| Mar ’25 | HK$19.58 | HK$21.91 +11.9% | 12.9% | HK$27.49 | HK$15.92 | n/a | 23 |
| Feb ’25 | HK$15.76 | HK$21.90 +39.0% | 12.9% | HK$27.49 | HK$15.92 | n/a | 23 |
| Jan ’25 | HK$14.44 | HK$22.12 +53.2% | 14.0% | HK$29.09 | HK$15.99 | n/a | 23 |
| Dec ’24 | HK$14.18 | HK$22.07 +55.6% | 13.9% | HK$29.00 | HK$15.95 | n/a | 23 |
| Nov ’24 | HK$14.54 | HK$22.51 +54.8% | 12.0% | HK$29.01 | HK$16.97 | HK$17.50 | 23 |
| Oct ’24 | HK$17.20 | HK$22.73 +32.2% | 10.6% | HK$29.00 | HK$18.92 | HK$19.96 | 23 |
| Sep ’24 | HK$17.58 | HK$22.94 +30.5% | 10.2% | HK$28.78 | HK$19.05 | HK$14.56 | 24 |
| Aug ’24 | HK$18.94 | HK$21.85 +15.4% | 11.7% | HK$28.63 | HK$17.66 | HK$13.10 | 23 |
| Jul ’24 | HK$16.38 | HK$21.66 +32.2% | 11.9% | HK$28.43 | HK$17.54 | HK$15.54 | 22 |
| Jun ’24 | HK$15.64 | HK$22.02 +40.8% | 11.8% | HK$28.98 | HK$17.95 | HK$17.86 | 22 |
| May ’24 | HK$16.60 | HK$21.54 +29.8% | 9.2% | HK$25.89 | HK$17.93 | HK$20.75 | 22 |
| Apr ’24 | HK$17.08 | HK$21.67 +26.9% | 9.2% | HK$26.05 | HK$18.03 | HK$20.65 | 22 |
| Mar ’24 | HK$16.44 | HK$20.53 +24.9% | 10.6% | HK$23.82 | HK$14.52 | HK$19.58 | 22 |
| Feb ’24 | HK$18.08 | HK$20.73 +14.7% | 10.5% | HK$23.20 | HK$14.89 | HK$15.76 | 21 |
| Jan ’24 | HK$18.78 | HK$18.05 -3.9% | 10.2% | HK$21.52 | HK$14.51 | HK$14.44 | 19 |
| Dec ’23 | HK$16.24 | HK$16.88 +3.9% | 7.5% | HK$18.96 | HK$13.91 | HK$14.18 | 19 |
| Nov ’23 | HK$13.38 | HK$17.32 +29.4% | 7.3% | HK$19.00 | HK$14.02 | HK$14.54 | 19 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.