Shangri-La Asia Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 69 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

69 (HK$5.5) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$20.44)

Is 69 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 69 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 69 (HK$5.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$20.44)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 69 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 69?

Key metric: As 69 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 69. This is calculated by dividing 69's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 69's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	17x
Earnings	US$147.26m
Market Cap	US$2.51b

69 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	19.6x
PEG Ratio	0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 69's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 69 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	29.7x
696 TravelSky Technology	19.3x	17.2%	HK$32.4b
780 Tongcheng Travel Holdings	20.3x	16.4%	HK$42.0b
71 Miramar Hotel and Investment Company	6.5x	n/a	HK$6.3b
308 China Travel International Investment Hong Kong	72.6x	39.0%	HK$5.7b
69 Shangri-La Asia	17x	34.5%	HK$19.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 69 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x) compared to the peer average (29.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 69's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Hospitality Industry?

5 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
1383 LET Group Holdings	1.3x	n/a	US$38.09m
1655 Okura Holdings	0.7x	n/a	US$9.41m
8052 Luk Hing Entertainment Group Holdings	1.3x	n/a	US$2.68m
8475 E-Station Green Technology Group	0.4x	n/a	US$2.28m

5 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 69 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x) compared to the Hong Kong Hospitality industry average (16.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 69's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

69 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17x
Fair PE Ratio	18.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 69 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 69 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$5.50	HK$6.54 +19.0%	10.2%	HK$7.78	HK$5.79	n/a	5
Dec ’25	HK$5.41	HK$6.55 +21.0%	10.2%	HK$7.78	HK$5.79	n/a	5
Nov ’25	HK$5.54	HK$6.86 +23.8%	13.7%	HK$8.45	HK$5.79	n/a	6
Oct ’25	HK$5.64	HK$6.86 +21.6%	13.7%	HK$8.45	HK$5.78	n/a	6
Sep ’25	HK$4.80	HK$6.88 +43.3%	13.7%	HK$8.48	HK$5.80	n/a	6
Aug ’25	HK$5.43	HK$7.64 +40.8%	7.0%	HK$8.49	HK$6.70	n/a	6
Jul ’25	HK$5.37	HK$7.66 +42.6%	7.1%	HK$8.51	HK$6.71	n/a	6
Jun ’25	HK$5.50	HK$7.66 +39.3%	7.1%	HK$8.51	HK$6.71	n/a	6
May ’25	HK$5.48	HK$7.66 +39.8%	7.1%	HK$8.51	HK$6.71	n/a	6
Apr ’25	HK$4.90	HK$7.66 +56.3%	7.1%	HK$8.51	HK$6.71	n/a	6
Mar ’25	HK$5.02	HK$8.47 +68.8%	7.3%	HK$9.20	HK$7.48	n/a	6
Feb ’25	HK$5.00	HK$8.47 +69.5%	7.3%	HK$9.20	HK$7.48	n/a	6
Jan ’25	HK$5.36	HK$8.49 +58.4%	7.7%	HK$9.35	HK$7.47	n/a	6
Dec ’24	HK$5.36	HK$8.52 +59.0%	7.8%	HK$9.39	HK$7.50	HK$5.41	6
Nov ’24	HK$4.97	HK$8.52 +71.4%	7.8%	HK$9.39	HK$7.50	HK$5.54	6
Oct ’24	HK$5.36	HK$8.52 +59.0%	7.8%	HK$9.39	HK$7.50	HK$5.64	6
Sep ’24	HK$5.36	HK$8.79 +63.9%	9.9%	HK$10.00	HK$7.53	HK$4.80	6
Aug ’24	HK$6.58	HK$8.59 +30.5%	11.4%	HK$9.95	HK$7.30	HK$5.43	6
Jul ’24	HK$5.99	HK$8.84 +47.5%	10.7%	HK$10.00	HK$7.30	HK$5.37	5
Jun ’24	HK$5.84	HK$8.84 +51.3%	10.7%	HK$10.00	HK$7.30	HK$5.50	5
May ’24	HK$7.23	HK$8.84 +22.2%	10.7%	HK$10.00	HK$7.30	HK$5.48	5
Apr ’24	HK$7.36	HK$8.84 +20.1%	10.7%	HK$10.00	HK$7.30	HK$4.90	5
Mar ’24	HK$7.60	HK$7.81 +2.8%	15.5%	HK$10.00	HK$6.67	HK$5.02	5
Feb ’24	HK$6.90	HK$7.12 +3.1%	7.9%	HK$8.17	HK$6.64	HK$5.00	5
Jan ’24	HK$6.40	HK$7.13 +11.4%	7.8%	HK$8.16	HK$6.63	HK$5.36	5
Dec ’23	HK$5.12	HK$7.12 +39.0%	7.8%	HK$8.16	HK$6.63	HK$5.36	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.