Is China Maple Leaf Educational Systems (HKG:1317) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, China Maple Leaf Educational Systems Limited (HKG:1317) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

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When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

What Is China Maple Leaf Educational Systems's Net Debt?

As you can see below, China Maple Leaf Educational Systems had CN¥3.55b of debt, at February 2025, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥709.7m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥2.84b.

How Strong Is China Maple Leaf Educational Systems' Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that China Maple Leaf Educational Systems had liabilities of CN¥1.40b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥3.08b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥709.7m and CN¥171.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥3.60b.

This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥1.04b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, China Maple Leaf Educational Systems would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

View our latest analysis for China Maple Leaf Educational Systems

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

As it happens China Maple Leaf Educational Systems has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.5 but very strong interest coverage of 1k. So either it has access to very cheap long term debt or that interest expense is going to grow! Notably China Maple Leaf Educational Systems's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year. Ideally it can diminish its debt load by kick-starting earnings growth. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is China Maple Leaf Educational Systems's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, China Maple Leaf Educational Systems recorded free cash flow worth 58% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

On the face of it, China Maple Leaf Educational Systems's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its interest cover is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, we think it's fair to say that China Maple Leaf Educational Systems has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for China Maple Leaf Educational Systems you should be aware of.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.