Optimistic Investors Push Tristate Holdings Limited (HKG:458) Shares Up 56% But Growth Is Lacking

Tristate Holdings Limited (HKG:458) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 56% share price jump in the last month. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 40%.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Tristate Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Hong Kong, where the median P/E ratio is around 10x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

Tristate Holdings certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Tristate Holdings

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Tristate Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Tristate Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 46% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 24% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's curious that Tristate Holdings' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What We Can Learn From Tristate Holdings' P/E?

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Tristate Holdings' P/E is also back up to the market median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Tristate Holdings revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Tristate Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

You might be able to find a better investment than Tristate Holdings. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.