Samsonite Group S.A. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Samsonite Group S.A. (HKG:1910) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$797m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 27%, coming in at just US$0.034 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Samsonite Group provided consensus estimates of US$3.44b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a small 2.4% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 15% to US$0.19 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.60b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.23 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Samsonite Group

The consensus price target fell 6.7% to HK$22.85, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Samsonite Group at HK$31.31 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$13.30. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.2% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 12% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Samsonite Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Samsonite Group's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Samsonite Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Samsonite Group you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.