Great Wall Motor Company Limited Beat Revenue Forecasts By 28%: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Investors in Great Wall Motor Company Limited (HKG:2333) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.7% to close at HK$11.22 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenue of CN¥49b beat expectations by an impressive 28%, while statutory earnings per share (EPS) were CN¥0.82, in line with estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Great Wall Motor

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Great Wall Motor's 33 analysts is for revenues of CN¥210.7b in 2024. This reflects a solid 8.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 2.5% to CN¥1.46 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥215.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.26 in 2024. Although the analysts have lowered their revenue forecasts, they've also made a substantial gain in their earnings per share estimates, which implies there's been something of an uptick in sentiment following the latest results.

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of HK$15.08, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Great Wall Motor analyst has a price target of HK$20.47 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$8.94. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Great Wall Motor's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 17% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 15% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 13% per year. So it's pretty clear that Great Wall Motor is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Great Wall Motor's earnings potential next year. They also downgraded Great Wall Motor's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Great Wall Motor going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Great Wall Motor that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.