LSE:NEX

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

National Express Group PLC provides public transport services in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, North Africa, North America, and the Middle East.


Snowflake Analysis

Undervalued average dividend payer.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has National Express Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: NEX's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

66.1%

NEX

12.9%

GB Transportation

10.0%

GB Market


1 Year Return

-54.7%

NEX

-47.5%

GB Transportation

-23.0%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: NEX underperformed the UK Transportation industry which returned -46.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NEX underperformed the UK Market which returned -22.7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

NEXIndustryMarket
7 Day66.1%12.9%10.0%
30 Day-56.3%-42.7%-17.6%
90 Day-60.6%-48.8%-27.3%
1 Year-52.9%-54.7%-44.0%-47.5%-18.9%-23.0%
3 Year-42.2%-48.1%-38.4%-46.9%-12.9%-24.2%
5 Year-22.5%-35.2%-31.7%-44.8%1.6%-21.8%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is National Express Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is National Express Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: NEX (£1.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£3.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NEX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: NEX is poor value based on its PE Ratio (6.7x) compared to the Transportation industry average (5.3x).

PE vs Market: NEX is good value based on its PE Ratio (6.7x) compared to the UK market (12.5x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: NEX is good value based on its PEG Ratio (1x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: NEX is good value based on its PB Ratio (0.9x) compared to the GB Transportation industry average (1.2x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is National Express Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

6.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NEX's forecast earnings growth (6.9% per year) is above the savings rate (0.5%).

Earnings vs Market: NEX's earnings (6.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the UK market (15.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NEX's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: NEX's revenue (5.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (2.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NEX's revenue (5.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NEX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (15.2%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has National Express Group performed over the past 5 years?

12.5%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NEX has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: NEX's current net profit margins (5.1%) are lower than last year (5.5%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NEX's earnings have grown by 12.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: NEX's earnings growth over the past year (4%) is below its 5-year average (12.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: NEX earnings growth over the past year (4%) underperformed the Transportation industry 9.4%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: NEX's Return on Equity (13.3%) is considered low.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is National Express Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NEX's short term assets (£1.1B) do not cover its short term liabilities (£1.8B).

Long Term Liabilities: NEX's short term assets (£1.1B) do not cover its long term liabilities (£1.5B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NEX's debt to equity ratio (126.6%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: NEX's debt to equity ratio has increased from 82.2% to 126.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: NEX's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (25.3%).

Interest Coverage: NEX's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (3.8x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: NEX has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: NEX's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.8x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is National Express Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

8.83%

Current Dividend Yield


Upcoming Dividend Payment


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: NEX's dividend (8.83%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (2.7%).

High Dividend: NEX's dividend (8.83%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (7.3%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: NEX has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: NEX's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 9 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (59.1%), NEX's dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: NEX's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (45.1% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.2yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Dean Finch (52yo)

10s

Tenure

UK£4,203,000

Compensation

Mr. Dean Finch, B.Sc, MBA, ACA has been the Group Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director at National Express Group plc since February 15, 2010. Mr. Finch served as the Chief Executive Officer of Tu ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Dean's total compensation ($USD5.21M) is above average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.28M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Dean's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Dean Finch
Group CEO & Executive Director10yrsUK£4.20m0.064% £602.5k
Chris Davies
Group Finance Director & Executive Director2.83yrsUK£1.20m0.016% £151.4k
Louise Richardson
Head of Investor Relationsno datano datano data
Mike Goddard
Group Human Resources Directorno datano datano data
Chris Hardy
Managing Director of Coach3.17yrsno datano data
Tom Stables
Managing Director of UK & Germany7.33yrsno datano data
Craig Barker
Head of Safety - UK Coachno datano datano data
Ian Fraser
Managing Director of Kings Ferryno datano datano data
Julian Drury
Managing Director of C2Cno datano datano data
Paul Thomas
Managing Director of UK Bus2.83yrsno datano data

3.2yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: NEX's management team is considered experienced (3.2 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Dean Finch
Group CEO & Executive Director10yrsUK£4.20m0.064% £602.5k
Chris Davies
Group Finance Director & Executive Director2.83yrsUK£1.20m0.016% £151.4k
Michael J. McKeon
Independent Non-Executive Director4.67yrsUK£64.00k0.0020% £18.5k
John Armitt
Non-Executive Chairman7yrsUK£246.00k0.0043% £40.5k
Karen Geary
Independent Non-Executive Director0.42yrno data0.0020% £18.5k
Matthew Crummack
Independent Non-Executive Director4.83yrsUK£53.00k0.00053% £5.0k
Ashley Steel
Independent Non-Executive Director4.17yrsUK£53.00k0.0030% £28.5k
Jorge Cosmen
Non-Executive Deputy Chairman11.42yrsUK£53.00k0.54% £5.1m
Chris Muntwyler
Independent Non-Executive Director8.83yrsUK£72.00kno data
Elliott Sander
Senior Independent Non Executive Directorno dataUK£81.00k0.00020% £1.9k

4.8yrs

Average Tenure

57yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: NEX's board of directors are considered experienced (4.8 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: NEX insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

National Express Group PLC's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: National Express Group PLC
  • Ticker: NEX
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 1991
  • Industry: Trucking
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Market Cap: UK£945.138m
  • Shares outstanding: 510.33m
  • Website: https://www.nationalexpressgroup.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • National Express Group PLC
  • National Express House
  • Birmingham Coach Station
  • Birmingham
  • West Midlands
  • B5 6DD
  • United Kingdom

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
NEXLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPDec 1992
NXPG.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDDec 1992
3NADB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURDec 1992
NEXLBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPDec 1992
3NABRSE (Berne Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesCHCHFDec 1992

Biography

National Express Group PLC provides public transport services in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, North Africa, North America, and the Middle East. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments. It owns and leases buses, coaches, and trains to deliver local, regional, national, and international transportation services. The company also provides urban bus and transit services; scheduled coach services; and private hire and commuter coach travel services. In addition, the company operates service areas and other transport-related businesses, such as fuel distribution; and offers student transportation services. The company has a fleet of approximately 31,700 vehicles and 940 million journeys. National Express Group PLC was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/03/30 20:56
End of Day Share Price2020/03/30 00:00
Earnings2019/12/31
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.