LSE:FGP

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

FirstGroup plc provides passenger transport services.

Rewards

Trading at 92.5% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 45.43% per year

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for FGP from our risk checks.


Snowflake Analysis

Reasonable growth potential and fair value.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Firstgroup's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: FGP has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.5%

FGP

-0.03%

GB Transportation

0.2%

GB Market


1 Year Return

42.7%

FGP

-4.7%

GB Transportation

6.4%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: FGP exceeded the UK Transportation industry which returned -4.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FGP exceeded the UK Market which returned 6.4% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

FGPIndustryMarket
7 Day1.5%-0.03%0.2%
30 Day5.7%-2.9%-1.4%
90 Day12.8%-0.2%3.8%
1 Year42.7%42.7%1.6%-4.7%11.9%6.4%
3 Year11.7%11.7%21.0%4.2%18.6%3.8%
5 Year25.7%25.7%31.8%6.6%34.8%4.0%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Firstgroup's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Firstgroup undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: FGP (£1.33) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£17.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FGP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: FGP is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the Transportation industry average.

PE vs Market: FGP is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the UK market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate FGP's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: FGP is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.1x) compared to the GB Transportation industry average (1.9x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Firstgroup forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

45.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FGP is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (0.5%).

Earnings vs Market: FGP is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: FGP's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FGP's revenue (4.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (3.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FGP's revenue (4.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FGP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.1%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Firstgroup performed over the past 5 years?

-55.2%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FGP is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: FGP is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FGP is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of -55.2% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare FGP's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: FGP is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Transportation industry (14.9%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: FGP has a negative Return on Equity (-18.89%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Firstgroup's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: FGP's short term assets (£1.9B) do not cover its short term liabilities (£2.4B).

Long Term Liabilities: FGP's short term assets (£1.9B) do not cover its long term liabilities (£3.1B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: FGP's debt to equity ratio (111.7%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: FGP's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 131.9% to 111.7% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: FGP has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: FGP's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 1.2x debt).


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Whilst unprofitable FGP has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if it maintains its current positive free cash flow level.

Forecast Cash Runway: FGP is unprofitable but has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years, due to free cash flow being positive and growing by 35.5% per year.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Firstgroup's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

0.37%

Forecast Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company0%marketbottom25%1.8%markettop25%5.1%industryaverage7.3%forecastin3Years0.4%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate FGP's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate FGP's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FGP's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FGP's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: FGP is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of FGP's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the UK market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.2yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Matthew Gregory 0

1.3yrs

Tenure

UK£876,000

Compensation

Mr. Matthew Gregory is Chief Executive at Firstgroup plc since November 13, 2018 and is its Executive Director since December 1, 2015. Mr. Gregory was an Interim Chief Operating Officer at Firstgroup plc s ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Matthew's total compensation ($USD1.14M) is below average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.83M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Matthew's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Matthew Gregory
CEO & Executive Director1.3yrsUK£876.00k0.035% £563.2k
Ryan Mangold
CFO & Director0.8yrsno data0.015% £247.8k
Faisal Tabbah
Head of Investor Relations0yrsno datano data
Michael Hampson
General Counsel & Company Secretary0yrsno datano data
Stuart Butchers
Group Head of Communications0yrsno datano data
Tim Noble
Head of Procurement - TransPennine Express4.3yrsno datano data
Liz Collins
Interim Managing Director0yrsno datano data
Jim Harbidge
Group Head of Environment3.8yrsno datano data
Kevin Belfield
Managing Director of South Yorkshire3.5yrsno datano data
Andrew Jarvis
Managing Director for Scotland and Glasgow2.8yrsno datano data

3.2yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: FGP's management team is considered experienced (3.2 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Matthew Gregory
CEO & Executive Director1.3yrsUK£876.00k0.035% £563.2k
Ryan Mangold
CFO & Director0.8yrsno data0.015% £247.8k
David Martin
Non-Executive Chairman0.5yrsno data0.0083% £132.5k
David Robbie
Senior Independent Non-Executive Director0.8yrsUK£70.00k0.0050% £79.5k
Warwick Brady
Independent Non-Executive Director5.7yrsUK£58.00k0.0090% £144.0k
Martha Poulter
Independent Non-Executive Director2.8yrsUK£61.00k0.0050% £79.5k
Julia Steyn
Independent Non-Executive Director0.8yrsno datano data
Stephen William Gunning
Independent Non-Executive Director1.1yrsUK£15.00kno data
Sally Cabrini
Independent Non-Executive Director0.08yrsno datano data
Jimmy Groombridge
Group Employee Director2.8yrsUK£58.00k0.0010% £16.8k

0.9yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: FGP's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 0.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Firstgroup plc's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Firstgroup plc
  • Ticker: FGP
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 1995
  • Industry: Trucking
  • Sector: Transportation
  • Market Cap: UK£1.604b
  • Shares outstanding: 1.21b
  • Website: https://www.firstgroupplc.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Firstgroup plc
  • 395 King Street
  • Aberdeen
  • Aberdeenshire
  • AB24 5RP
  • United Kingdom

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
FGRO.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDJun 1995
FGRDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURJun 1995
FGPLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPJun 1995
FGPLBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPJun 1995
FGRO.YOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)UNSPONSORD ADRUSUSDOct 2008

Biography

FirstGroup plc provides passenger transport services. The company’s First Student segment provides student transportation services through a fleet of approximately 44,000 yellow school buses in North America. This segment also offers charter hire services for school and non-school activities. Its First Transit segment offers public transit management and contracting services, including fixed route, paratransit, shuttle, and vehicle maintenance services to transit authorities, such as federal, state, and local transportation departments, as well as for private institutions, including universities, hospitals, and airports in North America. The company’s Greyhound segment provides scheduled intercity coach transportation services to approximately 4,000 destinations through a fleet of approximately 1,600 vehicles in the United States and Canada. Its First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 5,800 buses in the United Kingdom. The company’s First Rail segment operates passenger rail network that provides intercity, commuter, regional, and sleeper services through a portfolio of Great Western and TransPennine Express franchises; and passenger rail service. FirstGroup plc was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Aberdeen, the United Kingdom. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/22 20:52
End of Day Share Price2020/02/21 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2019/03/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.