Stock Analysis

Have Insiders Been Selling National Express Group PLC (LON:NEX) Shares This Year?

LSE:MCG
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We've lost count of how many times insiders have accumulated shares in a company that goes on to improve markedly. The flip side of that is that there are more than a few examples of insiders dumping stock prior to a period of weak performance. So we'll take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in National Express Group PLC (LON:NEX).

Do Insider Transactions Matter?

It is perfectly legal for company insiders, including board members, to buy and sell stock in a company. However, rules govern insider transactions, and certain disclosures are required.

We don't think shareholders should simply follow insider transactions. But it is perfectly logical to keep tabs on what insiders are doing. As Peter Lynch said, 'insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise'.

Check out our latest analysis for National Express Group

National Express Group Insider Transactions Over The Last Year

The insider, Dean Finch, made the biggest insider sale in the last 12 months. That single transaction was for UK£759k worth of shares at a price of UK£1.99 each. That means that an insider was selling shares at slightly below the current price (UK£2.42). We generally consider it a negative if insiders have been selling, especially if they did so below the current price, because it implies that they considered a lower price to be reasonable. However, while insider selling is sometimes discouraging, it's only a weak signal. This single sale was 100% of Dean Finch's stake. Notably Dean Finch was also the biggest buyer, having purchased UK£648k worth of shares.

In the last twelve months insiders purchased 351.85k shares for UK£648k. But they sold 699.14k shares for UK£1.2m. Over the last year we saw more insider selling of National Express Group shares, than buying. The sellers received a price of around UK£1.78, on average. It's not particularly great to see insiders were selling shares at below recent prices. Of course, the sales could be motivated for a multitude of reasons, so we shouldn't jump to conclusions. The chart below shows insider transactions (by companies and individuals) over the last year. If you click on the chart, you can see all the individual transactions, including the share price, individual, and the date!

insider-trading-volume
LSE:NEX Insider Trading Volume December 15th 2020

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Does National Express Group Boast High Insider Ownership?

Many investors like to check how much of a company is owned by insiders. A high insider ownership often makes company leadership more mindful of shareholder interests. National Express Group insiders own about UK£8.4m worth of shares. That equates to 0.6% of the company. This level of insider ownership is good but just short of being particularly stand-out. It certainly does suggest a reasonable degree of alignment.

So What Does This Data Suggest About National Express Group Insiders?

The fact that there have been no National Express Group insider transactions recently certainly doesn't bother us. Our analysis of National Express Group insider transactions leaves us unenthusiastic. And we're not picking up on high enough insider ownership to give us any comfort. So these insider transactions can help us build a thesis about the stock, but it's also worthwhile knowing the risks facing this company. To help with this, we've discovered 3 warning signs (1 is a bit concerning!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in National Express Group.

Of course National Express Group may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of high quality companies.

For the purposes of this article, insiders are those individuals who report their transactions to the relevant regulatory body. We currently account for open market transactions and private dispositions, but not derivative transactions.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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